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Corn Prices Rally Double Digits on Tuesday

Overnight, markets attempted a turnaround Tuesday correction, but then prices rallied back above $7.50 for July. New crop futures also gained 11 1/2 to 12 cents, which took May ’23 to above $7.20. The new crop market had a 5 cent carry from Dec to March, and another 1 1/2 carry to May ’23, though July ’23 remained a 4 cent inverse to May at the close. ?

IGC expects global grain production to fall by 40 MMT in 22/23 to 2.251b MT. Corn and Barley are expected to drop off the most.?

Trader estimates ahead of Friday’s WASDE are calling for domestic corn carryout to be 3.2 mbu tighter at 1.436 bbu. The high end is for a 60 mbu boost to 1.5 billion, while the lowest estimate is to see old crop stocks fall to 1.386 billion. New crop estimates range from 1.505 to 1.198 billion bushels, compared to the May figure of 1.360. On average, the trade is looking for a 9 mbu trim. Global old crop stocks are expected to be tightened by 600k MT to 308.8 MMT. Global new crop carryout is also estimated 600k MT lighter on average, to 304.5 MMT.?

Census corn data confirmed 274.58 mbu were exported during April. That was down 6% from March and was 18% lower yr/yr. The official corn export for the season through April was 1.67 bbu. The Census data showed DDGS exports were 813,749 MT during April. Ethanol exports were a record for the month of April, with 185.19m gallons shipped.?

Barchart’s first corn production estimates shows 14.206 bbu on 81.64 million harvested acres. Their first yield estimate is 174 bpa. In December, their final 21/22 corn yield was 182 bpa, up from their 174.15 initial and above the USDA official 177 bpa.?

French corn planting is complete according to FranceAgriMer. The European Commission estimates EU corn output at 72.5 MMT, compared to their prior 73.4 MMT figure. USDA had them at 68.25 MMT in their May WASDE. Brazil has begun harvest for their 2nd crop with 3% out according to AgRural.?

Jul 22 Corn??closed at $7.57, up 14 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash??was $7.56, up 15 7/8 cents,

Sep 22 Corn??closed at $7.25 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

Dec 22 Corn??closed at $7.14, up 11 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash??was $6.97 5/8, up 11 3/4 cents,

Double Digit Recovery from Soybeans

Front month soy futures started the day portion with an attempt at a turnaround Tuesday. The market rallied before midday, but ultimately closed off the highs. Soymeal led the way, going home 1.8% to 2.5% higher on the day. Old crop July soybeans printed a +40 cent range on Tuesday to gain 29 cents. The other front months closed 12 to 18 cents higher. BO futures closed mixed but mostly higher within 25 points of UNCH.?

Barchart issued their first 22/23 soybean production forecasts, showing a 4.443 bbu crop off 89.78m harvested acres. That left their first yield estimate at 49.49bpa, compared to USDA’s 51.5. Last year their soy yield started as 49.15 bpa before ending at 51.35 bpa.?

Going into the June WASDE, analysts expect USDA to put old crop carryout as 219.3 mbu. That would be a 15.7 mbu cut from May if realized, though the range is to see between a 5 mbu bump to a 60 mbu cut. For new crop soybeans, traders surveyed expect USDA to cut 15.9 mbu to 294. The full range is from 250 to 355 mbu. On the global stage, estimates are to see 84.9 MMT carried into 22/23 and 99.5 MMT carried into 23/24. If realized that would be a 300k MT trim and a negligible 100k MT trim from May respectively.?

Census reported 134.38 mbu of US soybeans were shipped during the month of April. That was an all-time high for the month, and was up 14% from March exports. The MYTD confirmed export total was up to 1.78 bbu through April. For the products, Census reported 1.07 MMT of soymeal was exported (even with March and up 12% yr/yr), with 76,241 MT of soy oil.?

Jul 22 Soybeans??closed at $17.28 1/4, up 29 cents,

Nearby Cash??was $16.88 3/8, up 23 1/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans??closed at $16.53 3/4, up 18 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans??closed at $15.49 3/4, up 16 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash??was $14.96, up 16 1/2 cents,

Hogs Close Mixed, Mostly Higher

Tuesday hog trading left the board mostly 2 to 50 cents higher in the front months. June prices faded by 80 cents on the day as the contract converges with cash ahead of expiration. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $116.85 on Tuesday, up by $4.65. The CME Lean Hog Index was $107.34 on 6/3, up by $1.29. ?

Pork cutout futures closed mostly red, as October bounced 70 cents to the other nearbys’ $0.15 to $1.72 losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout?for Tuesday was 96 cents weaker to $107.83. USDA estimated Tuesday’s FI hog slaughter at 479k head. That has the WTD kill as 954k head.?

Jun 22 Hogs??closed at $108.425, down $0.800,

Jul 22 Hogs??closed at $109.275, up $0.300

Jun 22 Pork Cutout??closed at $110.825, down $1.725,

Mixed Tuesday for Cotton Market

At the close for Tuesday’s session, July cotton was down by 79 points and near the low of the 2.3 cent range. New crop futures closed up by 10 to 50 points, as the deferred months shrank their inverse. December futures printed a 275 point range, and stayed a 4.5 cent premium to March.?

Census reported April cotton exports as 1.887m bales. That was a 3% dip from March, but was 19% higher yr/yr. That set the MYTD cotton export program as 10.186m RBs, compared to USDA’s May forecast of 14.75m bales.?

The Cotlook A index for 6/6 was 156.20 cents, down by 75 points. USDA’s AWP for cotton is 135.36 cents/lb for the week through Thursday.?

Jul 22 Cotton??closed at 136.95, down 79 points,

Dec 22 Cotton??closed at 119.88, up 8 points,

Mar 23 Cotton??closed at 115.33, up 22 points

Wheat Fades on Turnaround Tuesday

The wheat market cooled off after the bounce to start the week. Chicago futures closed 16 1/4 to 21 1/4 cents lower. HRW ended the day with 13 to 20 3/4 cent losses. Spring wheat held firm, but still gave back 3 1/4 to 6 cents on the day.?

Survey responses show the trade average guess for old crop wheat stocks is 665.8 mbu, compared to USDA’s May 655 mbu figure. The WASDE will report their guess on Friday, with NASS data confirming 21/22 wheat carryout in the June 30th Grain Stocks report. New crop wheat stocks are estimated to be between 550 and 680 mbu in the June WASDE. The average trade guess would be a 3.7 mbu drop from May if realized. Global wheat stocks are estimated between 275 MMT and 281.3 MMT for old crop. New crop wheat carryout is expected to be reported between 260 and 272 MMT on Friday. The average trade estimates are for a 100k MT trim and a 300k MT boost respectively. ?

April wheat exports were 64.32 mbu according to Census. That set the MYTD total to 735.4 mbu, with just May data to be confirmed.?

Kazakhstan’s Ag Minister estimated the 22/23 wheat crop between 13 and 13.5 MMT. Australia’s ABAREs estimated the 22/23 wheat crop at 30.3 MMT, which would be down 6 MMT yr/yr if realized, but would still be the 4th largest crop on record and up 20% from the 10-yr average. China’s wheat harvest reached 55% completion as of 6/6 according to their Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.?

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat??closed at $10.71 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat??was $10.13 5/8, down 20 3/4 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat??closed at $11.49 1/4, down 20 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat??was $11.00 1/1, down 20 7/8 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat??closed at $12.27 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat??closed at $12.24 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Live Cattle Rallied on Tuesday

Fat cattle futures closed the Tuesday session with $0.75 to $1.22 gains. For June futures that bounced the market to a ~$1 to $5 discount to the cash market during the delivery process. CME had no deliveries reported on FND. The weekly FCE auction sold 71 of the 1,767 head listed for $128 and $130 respectively, though the cattle sold were Holsteins. The unsold cattle were bid up to $135 against $136-$138 asks. USDA reported very limited $141 trade in the WCB on Tuesday, and $224 to $227 in the beef. Last week cash sales were $140-$141 and $222 in the beef in the WCB. Cash markets remain mostly unestablished through Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures went home on Tuesday off their day’s lows with 2 to 47 cent gains. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/6 was back down by 4 cents to $158.49.?

Wholesale Boxed Beef were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice was $1.84 higher while Select’s $1.53 drop widened the Chc/Sel spread to $21.86. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 126k head for Tuesday. The week’s kill was marked as 251k head.?

Jun 22 Cattle??closed at $133.725, up $0.900,

Aug 22 Cattle??closed at $134.125, up $1.225,

Oct 22 Cattle??closed at $140.075, up $0.975,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle??closed at $172.450, up $0.475

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle??closed at $174.750, up $0.200

Cotton Futures Mixed at Midday

July cotton futures are trading 114 points lower through midday. New crop prices are up by 40 to 54 points so far, working more than 2 cents off the day’s lows.?

Census reported April cotton exports as 1.887m bales. That was a 3% dip from March, but was 19% higher yr/yr. That set the MYTD cotton export program as 10.186m RBs, compared to USDA’s May forecast of 14.75m bales. ?

The 22/23 cotton crop was 84% planted as of 6/5, according to the Crop Progress report. That is up from 68% planted last week and the 5-yr average pace of 76%. 11% of the national crop was squaring, up from 7% last week and the 10% average. Cotton conditions from the report converted to a 336 on the Brugler500 index. That was up from 327 initially. Texas cotton scored a 304 on the Brugler500.?

The Seam reported 407 bales were sold at spot on 6/1, for an average $1.25 selling price per pound. The Cotlook A index for 6/6 was 156.20 cents, down by 75 points. USDA’s AWP for cotton is 135.36 cents/lb for the week through Thursday.?

Jul 22 Cotton??is at 136.59, down 115 points,

Dec 22 Cotton??is at 120.09, up 29 points,

Mar 23 Cotton??is at 115.54, up 43 points

Cattle Market Firming Back Up

Turnaround Tuesday in the fat cattle futures market has the board back up by $0.70 to $1.07 so far into midday. The weekly FCE saw 71 of the 1,76 head listed were sold this AM for $128 and $130 respectively. The cattle sold were Holsteins. The unsold cattle were bid up to $135 against $136-$138 asks. Feeder cattle futures are trading mixed within 12 cents of UNCH so far. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.29 after an 81 cent boost on 6/2. ?

Wholesale Boxed Beef were higher again for Tuesday morning with USDA showing a $2.11 increase in Choice and a $2.90 increase for Select. That tightened the Chc/Sel spread to $16.45. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 125k head for Monday. That does not compare to last week, and is up 8k head from the same Monday last year.?

Jun 22 Cattle??are at $133.550, up $0.725,

Aug 22 Cattle??are at $133.750, up $0.850,

Oct 22 Cattle??are at $139.775, up $0.675,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle??are at $171.650, down $0.325

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle??are at $174.100, down $0.450

Lean Hog Futures Mostly Higher

So far through Tuesday, front month lean hog futures are trading mostly 7 to 32 cents higher. June contracts are down by 77 cents, with Feb 17 cents in the red. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $116.34 on Tuesday morning, up by $4.76. The CME Lean Hog Index was $107.34 on 6/3, up by $1.29. ?

Pork cutout futures are also mixed at midday, trading within 30 cents of UNCH in the nearbys, and a $1.17 loss in the June contract. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout?for Tuesday morning was $6.88 stronger to $116.26. USDA estimated 475k head of hogs were slaughtered on Monday under federal inspection. That is not comparable to Memorial Day’s kill last week, but is 4k head lighter yr/yr.?

Jun 22 Hogs??are at $108.575, down $0.650,

Jul 22 Hogs??are at $109.325, up $0.350

Jun 22 Pork Cutout??is at $111.375, down $1.175,

Wheat Futures Dropping by Double Digits

Following the rebound to start the week, turnaround Tuesday has wheat futures backing off by double digits. Chicago SRW is trading 20 1/4 to 22 cents in the red. KC wheat futures are down by as much as 26 cents at midday. Spring wheat losses are limited to 6 1/2 cents so far.?

Survey responses show the trade average guess for old crop wheat stocks is 665.8 mbu, between 645 and 715 and compared to USDA’s May 655 mbu figure. The WASDE will report their guess on Friday, with NASS data confirming 21/22 wheat carryout in the June 30th Grain Stocks report. New crop wheat stocks are estimated to be between 550 and 680 mbu in the June WASDE. The average trade guess would be a 3.7 mbu drop from May if realized. Global wheat stocks are estimated between 275 MMT and 281.3 MMT for old crop. New crop wheat carryout is expected to be reported between 260 and 272 MMT on Friday. The average trade estimates are for a 100k MT trim and a 300k MT boost respectively. ?

April wheat exports were 64.32 mbu according to Census. That set the MYTD total to 735.4 mbu, with just May data to be confirmed.?

Kazakhstan’s Ag Minister estimated the 22/23 wheat crop between 13 and 13.5 MMT. Australia’s ABAREs estimated the 22/23 wheat crop at 30.3 MMT, which would be down 6 MMT yr/yr if realized, but would still be the 4th largest crop on record and up 20% from the 10-yr average. China’s wheat harvest reached 55% completion as of 6/6 according to their Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. ?

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat??is at $10.71 1/2, down 21 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat??is at $10.12 7/8, down 21 1/2 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat??is at $11.49 3/4, down 20 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat??is at $11.00 3/8, up 27 1/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat??is at $12.29 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat??is at $12.28 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Corn Adding Double Digits to Upside

Corn prices are up another 14 3/4 to 20 cents through midday. That follows the bounce out of the weekend, and has July up by 35 cents and December back up by 27 cents so far for the week.?

Trader estimates into Friday’s WASDE are calling for domestic corn carryout to be 3.2 mbu tighter at 1.436 bbu. The high end is for a 60 mbu boost to 1.5 flat, while the lowest estimate is to see old crop stocks fall to 1.386 billion. New crop estimates range from 1.505 to 1.198 billion bushels, compared to the May figure of 1.360. On average, the trade is looking for a 9 mbu trim. Global old crop stocks are expected to be tightened by 600k MT to 308.8 MMT. Global new crop carryout is also estimated 600k MT lighter on average, to 304.5 MMT.?

Census data confirmed 274.58 mbu were exported during April. That was down 6% from March and was 18% lower yr/yr. The official corn export for the season through April was 1.67 bbu. The Census data showed DDGS exports were 813,749 MT during April. Ethanol exports were a record for the month of April, with 185.19m gallons shipped.?

French corn planting was reported as complete according to FranceAgriMer. The European Commission estimates EU corn output at 72.5 MMT, compared to their prior 73.4 MMT figure. USDA had them at 68.25 MMT in their May WASDE. Brazil was seen starting harvest for their 2nd crop with 3% out according to AgRural.?

Jul 22 Corn??is at $7.62 1/4, up 19 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash?? is at $7.61 3/4, up 20 5/8 cents,

Sep 22 Corn??is at $7.29 1/2, up 15 1/4 cents,

Dec 22 Corn??is at $7.17 1/2, up 15 cents,

New Crop Cash?? is at $6.85 1/1, up 12 7/8 cents,

Soybeans Gaining Double Digits into Midday

After a firm start to the Tuesday session worked the board a few cents lower, soybean prices took off and are trading 16 1/4 to 29 cents higher at midday. July beans are the strongest so far. Meal futures are trading $7.40 to $9/ton in the black so far. Soybean oil prices are trading 7 to 18 points higher in the deferreds, save for an 11 point dip in July.?

Going into the June WASDE, analysts expect USDA to set old crop carryout as 219.3 mbu. That would be a 15.7 mbu cut from May if realized, though the range is to see between a 5 mbu bump to a 60 mbu cut. For new crop soybeans, traders surveyed expect USDA to cut 15.9 mbu to 294. The full range is from 250 to 355 mbu. On the global stage, estimates are to see 84.9 MMT carried into 22/23 and 99.5 MMT carried into 23/24. If realized that would be a 300k MT trim and a 100k MT trim from May respectively.?

Census reported 134.38 mbu of soybeans were shipped during the month of April. That was an all-time high for the month, and was up 14% from March exports. The MYTD confirmed export total was up to 1.78 bbu through April. For the products, Census reported 1.07 MMT of soymeal was exported, that was even with March and up 12% yr/yr, with 76,241 MT of soy oil.?

Indonesia set their export quota as 300k MT for palm oil exports. Reports on the wire signal that is ~5x domestic supply, and that 251 permits had been issued.?

Jul 22 Soybeans??are at $17.28, up 28 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash?? is at $16.91 3/8, up 26 1/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans??are at $16.57 1/2, up 21 3/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans??are at $15.52 1/2, up 19 cents,

New Crop Cash?? is at $14.98 1/1, up 18 1/2 cents,

Cattle Futures Seek Cash Market Directionality

There were no delivery notices issued on First Notice Day, though the merc confirmed the oldest dated long as March 22 of 2021. Yesterday’s sharp rally back from the row crop feed markets pressured fat cattle futures to go home on Monday with $0.77 to $0.95 losses. Feeder cattle futures gave back $1.30 to $1.90 on the day. There were no cash sales reported on Monday. USDA confirmed last week’s cash trade was mainly near $135 in the South, with Northern sales of $139-$142 and $222 in the beef. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.29 after an 81 cent boost on 6/2. ?

Wholesale Boxed Beef were higher in USDA’s Monday afternoon report. Choice was quoted $2.32 higher to $269.58 while Select was up by $1.07. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 125k head for Monday. That does not compare to last week, and is up 8k head from the same Monday last year.?

Jun 22 Cattle??closed at $132.825, down $0.775,

Aug 22 Cattle??closed at $132.900, down $0.950,

Oct 22 Cattle??closed at $139.100, down $0.600,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle??closed at $171.975, down $1.900

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle??closed at $174.550, down $1.750

Three Red Candles for Hogs

Lean hog futures went home yesterday with the 3rd consecutive red candle, a net $3.45 drop for July. They were still up $11.60 from the 5/12 low. Yesterday, front month lean hog futures fell $0.80 to $1.77 on Monday. The deferred contracts also closed red, though with 2 to 27 cent losses to start the new week of trading. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Monday was 11 cents higher at $112.20. The June 2nd CME Lean Hog Index was $1.02 higher at $106.05. ?

Pork cutout futures went home with $1.45 to $1.82 losses on the first trade day of the new week. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout?value was $108.79 on Monday afternoon, down by 59 cents. CME’s Fresh Bacon Index was up another $1.98 to $212.50 during the week of 6/3. USDA estimated 475k head of hogs were slaughtered on Monday under federal inspection. That is not comparable to Memorial Day’s kill last week, but is 4k head lighter yr/yr.?

Jun 22 Hogs??closed at $109.225, down $0.975,

Jul 22 Hogs??closed at $108.975, down $1.775

Jun 22 Pork Cutout??closed at $112.525, down $1.475,

Cotton Fading into Tuesday

Overnight cotton trade has the board 60 to 174 points lower so far this morning. Monday’s cotton trading session closed with old crop July 44 points weaker to triple digit gains in the new crop futures. July cotton traded in a wide 463 point range to start the week, but ultimately went home nearer to the low. December cotton futures printed a tighter 294 point range and settled just 20 points off the day’s high.?

The 22/23 cotton crop was 84% planted as of 6/5, according to the Crop Progress report. That is up from 68% planted last week and the 5-yr average pace of 76%. Planting in TX was marked 82% finished. 11% of the national crop was squaring, up from 7% last week and the 10% average. Cotton conditions from the report converted to a 336 on the Brugler500 index. That is up from 327 initially. TX, AL, and SC improved over the week, while TN and KS worsened by 24 and 19 points respectively. Texas cotton scored a 304 on the Brugler500.?

The Seam reported 407 bales were sold at spot on 6/1, for an average $1.25 selling price per pound. The Cotlook A index for 6/1 was another 50 points lower to 156.95. USDA’s AWP for cotton is 135.36 cents/lb for the week through Thursday.?

Jul 22 Cotton??closed at 137.74, down 44 points, currently down 118 points

Dec 22 Cotton??closed at 119.8, up 190 points, currently down 95 points

Mar 23 Cotton??closed at 115.11, up 166 points, currently down 76 points

Wheat Market Pulling Back

Following the rebound to start the week, turnaround Tuesday has wheat futures back down by 3 to 10 cents. The deferred MPLS contracts are trading in the black. CBT SRW closed yesterday 4.8% to 5.1% higher, though July was still $1.91 under the LoC high from 5/17. KC wheat futures closed 47 to 49 cents higher on 4.2% to 4.4% gains. Spring wheat futures recovered 34 to 38 3/4 cents on the day with 2.9% to 3.25% gains.?

NASS reported 82% of the 22/23 spring wheat crop was planted as of 6/5. The 5-year average pace would be to be 97% planted by week 23. MN planting was just 65% finished. 55% of the crop was up as of 6/5, compared to 83% emerged on average. USDA reported 79% of the winter wheat crop was headed as of 6/5, trailing the average pace of 84%. Harvest is under way in AR, CA, MO, NC, OK, and TX, with 36% of Texas wheat out. Their average pace would be 38% harvested. National harvest is 5% finished, compared to 6% on average. Conditions had improved by 1 point nationally through the week to 271 on the Brugler500 index. Illinois, MT, and TX saw the most improvement while CO and OR got worse. Texas was still rated 166 on the Brugler500 index.?

USDA reported 352,779 MT of wheat was exported during the week that ended 6/2. Starting the new MY, with 225,845 MT through the first 2 days of data. Hard red spring and hard red winter were each over 100k MT of the total. Mexico was the week’s top destination.?

The FranceAgriMer reported the wheat crop at 67% good/ex, down from last week’s 69% reading.?

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat??closed at $10.93, up 53 cents, currently down 6 1/2 cents

Cash SRW Wheat??was $10.33 3/8, up 53 1/4 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat??closed at $11.70, up 49 cents, currently down 10 1/2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat??was $11.21 7/8, up 47 5/8 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat??closed at $12.30 1/2, up 38 3/4 cents, currently down 3 3/4 cents

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat??closed at $12.30 1/2, up 37 cents, currently down 3 1/2 cents

Corn Holding Morning Strength

So far for Tuesday, the corn market is working off the overnight lows with 3 3/4 to 5 cent strength. After closing with just 3 green candles since the LoC high on 5/16 (a net 76 1/4 cent drop), December corn futures bounced back with a 12 1/2 cent gain to back above the $7 mark. The other nearby futures also bounced back with double digit gains of as much as 15 1/2 cents to start the week.?

The Crop Progress report from NASS showed 94% of the U.S. 22/23 corn crop was planted as of 6/5. That was up from 86% last week and is now 2% points ahead of the 5-yr average despite the late start. Emergence still trails the average pace with NASS reporting 78% of the corn crop up, compared to 81%. The first look at corn condition ratings yielded a 73% good/ex and just a 4% poor/vp for a Brugler500 reading of 380. That matches last year’s score at the same time, though last year’s initial Brugler500 was 385 in week 22. Compared to last year, TX corn conditions were down the most, with a near 100 point drop to 302. CO was also down from last year with a 334 reading. Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin conditions were all above 400 on the Brugler500 index, accounting for ~ 23% of the area (5yr average). IL and NE scored a 395 and a 382 on the Brugler500 respectively, compared to 388 and 404 last year.?

Sorghum planting reached 56% complete, up 16% points wk/wk and 1% point ahead of the average pace. The initial milo conditions were a 46% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 328.?

USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.435 MMT of corn was shipped during the week that ended 6/2. That was up from last week’s 1.4 MMT shipment and from 1.427 MMT during the same week last year. Accumulated exports reached 43.733 MMT as of 6/2, compared to last year’s 52.61 MMT pace.?

French corn planting was reported as complete according to FranceAgriMer. Brazil was seen starting harvest for their 2nd crop, with Patria Agronegocios reporting 3.3% of the crop pulled in the fastest start to harvest.?

Jul 22 Corn??closed at $7.42 1/2, up 15 1/2 cents, currently up 3 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash??was $7.40 1/8, up 16 1/2 cents,

Sep 22 Corn??closed at $7.14 1/4, up 13 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Dec 22 Corn??closed at $7.02 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents, currently up 4 3/4 cents

New Crop Cash??was $6.85 1/1, up 12 7/8 cents,

Soybean Market Mixed into Tuesday

Soybean futures are firm into the Tuesday session, with fractional changes on either side of UNCH to 3 cent weakness. Meal is weaker by just $1.90/ton so far, with BO only 14 points. ?Front month soy futures began the new week with strength overnight. Prices turned red by midday before ultimately closing mixed across the complex. Beans ended the 20-30 cent ranged session with 1 1/2 to 7 1/4 cent gains. Meal went home within $1/ton of UNCH. BO futures closed mostly red, with July dropping 66 points to the other futures’ closes of less than 20 points of UNCH.?

NASS data released after the close showed soybeans were 78% planted as of 6/5. That was up from 66% last week and trails last year by just 1ppt. planting in Louisiana had wrapped up, compared to 93% at the same time last year. Iowa, was 94% planted, with MI and NE each more than 95% done. North Dakota, the most delayed, was 41% planted as of 6/5 compared to 85% planted last year. National emergence was marked at 56% complete, compared to 59% last year.?

Weekly Export Inspections data showed 350,416 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week that ended 6/2. That was down from 403k MT last week but was above the 239k MT from the same week last season. Mexico was the week’s top destination. USDA’s weekly data had the MY accumulated shipment total at 49.853 MMT, down 7 MMT yr/yr.?

Indonesia set their export quota as 300k MT for palm oil exports. Reports on the wire signal that is ~5x domestic supply, and that 251 permits had been issued.?

Jul 22 Soybeans??closed at $16.99 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, currently down 2 1/4 cents

Nearby Cash??was $16.65 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans??closed at $16.35 3/4, up 2 cents, currently down 1 1/2 cents

Nov 22 Soybeans??closed at $15.33 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents, currently up 3/4 cent

New Crop Cash??was $14.79 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

Afternoon Bounce for Monday Soy Futures

Front month soy futures began the new week with strength overnight. Prices turned red by midday before ultimately closing mixed across the complex. Beans ended the 20-30 cent ranged session with 1 1/2 to 7 1/4 cent gains. Meal went home within $1/ton of UNCH. BO futures closed mostly red, with July dropping 66 points to the other futures’ closes of less than 20 points of UNCH.?

NASS data released after the close showed soybeans were 78% planted as of 6/5. That was up from 66% last week and trails last year by just 1ppt. planting in Louisiana had wrapped up, compared to 93% at the same time last year. Iowa, was 94% planted, with MI and NE each more than 95% done. North Dakota, the most delayed, was 41% planted as of 6/5 compared to 85% planted last year. National emergence was marked at 56% complete, compared to 59% last year.?

Weekly Export Inspections data showed 350,416 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week that ended 6/2. That was down from 403k MT last week but was above the 239k MT from the same week last season. Mexico was the week’s top destination. USDA’s weekly data had the MY accumulated shipment total at 49.853 MMT, down 7 MMT yr/yr.?

Indonesia set their export quota as 300k MT for palm oil exports. Reports on the wire signal that is ~5x domestic supply, and that 251 permits had been issued.?

Jul 22 Soybeans??closed at $16.99 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash?? was $16.65 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans??closed at $16.35 3/4, up 2 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans??closed at $15.33 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash?? was $14.79 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

Wheat Rallied Out of Weekend

The domestic wheat markets made up of ~half of last week’s net drops with some +50 cent gains on Monday to start the new week. CBT SRW ended the day 4.8% to 5.1% higher, though July was still $1.91 under the LoC high from 5/17. KC wheat futures closed 47 to 49 cents higher on 4.2% to 4.4% gains. Spring wheat futures recovered 34 to 38 3/4 cents on the day with 2.9% to 3.25% gains.?

NASS reported 82% of the 22/23 spring wheat crop was planted as of 6/5. The 5-year average pace would be to be 97% planted by week 23. MN planting was just 65% finished. 55% of the crop was up as of 6/5, compared to 83% emerged on average. USDA reported 79% of the winter wheat crop was headed as of 6/5, trailing the average pace of 84%. Harvest is under way in AR, CA, MO, NC, OK, and TX, with 36% of Texas wheat out. Their average pace would be 38% harvested. National harvest is 5% finished, compared to 6% on average. Conditions had improved by 1 point nationally through the week to 271 on the Brugler500 index. Illinois, MT, and TX saw the most improvement while CO and OR got worse. Texas was still rated 166 on the Brugler500 index.?

USDA reported 352,779 MT of wheat was exported during the week that ended 6/2. Starting the new MY, with 225,845 MT through the first 2 days of data. Hard red spring and hard red winter were each over 100k MT of the total. Mexico was the week’s top destination.

The FranceAgriMer reported the wheat crop at 67% good/ex, down from last week’s 69% reading.?

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat??closed at $10.93, up 53 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat??was $10.33 3/8, up 53 1/4 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat??closed at $11.70, up 49 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat??was $11.21 7/8, up 47 5/8 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat??closed at $12.30 1/2, up 38 3/4 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat??closed at $12.30 1/2, up 37 cents,

Cattle Futures Weaken on Grain Gains

With the sharp rally back from the row crop feed markets, fat cattle futures went home on Monday with $0.77 to $0.95 losses. Feeder cattle futures gave back $1.30 to $1.90 on the day. There were no cash sales reported on Monday. USDA confirmed last week’s cash trade was mainly near $135 in the South, with Northern sales of $139-$142 and $222 in the beef. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.29 after an 81 cent boost on 6/2. ?

Wholesale Boxed Beef were higher in USDA’s Monday afternoon report. Choice was quoted $2.32 higher to $269.58 while Select was up by $1.07. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 125k head for Monday. That does not compare to last week, and is up 8k head from the same Monday last year.?

Jun 22 Cattle??closed at $132.825, down $0.775,

Aug 22 Cattle??closed at $132.900, down $0.950,

Oct 22 Cattle??closed at $139.100, down $0.600,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle??closed at $171.975, down $1.900

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle??closed at $174.550, down $1.750

Lean Hog Futures Stumble Out of Weekend

Front month lean hog futures fell $0.80 to $1.77 on Monday. The deferred contracts also closed red, though with 2 to 27 cent losses to start the new week of trading. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Monday was 11 cents higher at $112.20. The June 2nd CME Lean Hog Index was $1.02 higher at $106.05. ?

Pork cutout futures went home with $1.45 to $1.82 losses on the first trade day of the new week. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout?value was $108.79 on Monday afternoon, down by 59 cents. CME’s Fresh Bacon Index was up another $1.98 to $212.50 during the week of 6/3. USDA estimated 475k head of hogs were slaughtered on Monday under federal inspection. That is not comparable to Memorial Day’s kill last week, but is 4k head lighter yr/yr.?

Jun 22 Hogs??closed at $109.225, down $0.975,

Jul 22 Hogs??closed at $108.975, down $1.775

Jun 22 Pork Cutout??closed at $112.525, down $1.475,

Triple Digit Gains for New Crop Cotton

Monday’s cotton trading session closed with old crop July 44 points weaker to triple digit gains in the new crop futures. July cotton traded in a wide 463 point range to start the week, but ultimately went home nearer to the low. December cotton futures printed a tighter 294 point range and settled just 20 points off the day’s high.?

The 22/23 cotton crop was 84% planted as of 6/5, according to the Crop Progress report. That is up from 68% planted last week and the 5-yr average pace of 76%. Planting in TX was marked 82% finished. 11% of the national crop was squaring, up from 7% last week and the 10% average. Cotton conditions from the report converted to a 336 on the Brugler500 index. That is up from 327 initially. TX, AL, and SC improved over the week, while TN and KS worsened by 24 and 19 points respectively. Texas cotton scored a 304 on the Brugler500.?

The Seam reported 407 bales were sold at spot on 6/1, for an average $1.25 selling price per pound. The Cotlook A index for 6/1 was another 50 points lower to 156.95. USDA’s AWP for cotton is 135.36 cents/lb for the week through Thursday.?

Jul 22 Cotton??closed at 137.74, down 44 points,

Dec 22 Cotton??closed at 119.8, up 190 points,

Mar 23 Cotton??closed at 115.11, up 166 points

Monday Bounce for Corn

After closing with just 3 green candles since the LoC high on 5/16 (a net 76 1/4 cent drop), December corn futures bounced back with a 12 1/2 cent gain to back above the $7 mark. The other nearby futures also bounced back with double digit gains of as much as 15 1/2 cents to start the week.?

The Crop Progress report from NASS showed 94% of the U.S. 22/23 corn crop was planted as of 6/5. That was up from 86% last week and is now 2% points ahead of the 5-yr average despite the late start. Emergence still trails the average pace with NASS reporting 78% of the corn crop up, compared to 81%. The first look at corn condition ratings yielded a 73% good/ex and just a 4% poor/vp for a Brugler500 reading of 380. That matches last year’s score at the same time, though last year’s initial Brugler500 was 385 in week 22. Compared to last year, TX corn conditions were down the most, with a near 100 point drop to 302. CO was also down from last year with a 334 reading. Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin conditions were all above 400 on the Brugler500 index, accounting for ~ 23% of the area (5yr average). IL and NE scored a 395 and a 382 on the Brugler500 respectively, compared to 388 and 404 last year. ?

Sorghum planting reached 56% complete, up 16% points wk/wk and 1% point ahead of the average pace. The initial milo conditions were a 46% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 328.?

USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.435 MMT of corn was shipped during the week that ended 6/2. That was up from last week’s 1.4 MMT shipment and from 1.427 MMT during the same week last year. Accumulated exports reached 43.733 MMT as of 6/2, compared to last year’s 52.61 MMT pace.?

French corn planting was reported as complete according to FranceAgriMer. Brazil was seen starting harvest for their 2nd crop, with Patria Agronegocios reporting 3.3% of the crop pulled in the fastest start to harvest.?

Jul 22 Corn??closed at $7.42 1/2, up 15 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash?? was $7.40 1/8, up 16 1/2 cents,

Sep 22 Corn??closed at $7.14 1/4, up 13 cents,

Dec 22 Corn??closed at $7.02 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash?? was $6.85 1/1, up 12 7/8 cents,

Hogs Fading out of Weekend

Lean hog futures are trading $0.60 to $1.95 in the red so far, led by losses in the summer months. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Monday morning was $1.06 weaker to $111.58. The June 2nd CME Lean Hog Index was $1.02 higher at $106.05. ?

Pork cutout futures are down by as much as $1.92 so far. USDA reported the National Pork Carcass Cutout?value at $116.26 this morning, a $6.88 increase on higher bellies. USDA’s estimated hog slaughter under federal inspection was 2.044m head for the week through Saturday. The YTD kill is estimated at 53.052m head, down 4.6% yr/yr.?

Jun 22 Hogs??are at $109.125, down $1.075,

Jul 22 Hogs??are at $108.750, down $2.000

Jun 22 Pork Cutout??is at $112.375, down $1.625,

Cotton Futures Mixed at Midday

July cotton is down 79 points at midday after trading within a 5 cent range already through Monday. The new crop prices are also off their early session highs, but are still up by 67 to 145 points.?

The Cotlook A index for 6/1 was another 50 points lower to 156.95. ?USDA’s FSA reduced the AWP for cotton by 4.5 cents to 135.36 cents/lb for the week.?

Jul 22 Cotton??is at 137.39, down 79 points,

Dec 22 Cotton??is at 119.17, up 127 points,

Mar 23 Cotton??is at 114.43, up 98 points

Corn Futures Rallying at Midday

Corn came out of the weekend with Sunday night strength, and are currently trading double digits higher through midday. July corn is near the day’s highs with 14 1/2 cent gains at midday. December is trading 12 1/2 cents in the black so far. ?

The markets will see NASS’s first corn condition ratings after the close. Last year, the initial conditions were a 385 on the Brugler500 Index, and ratings from week 23 (this week) were converted to 380.?

USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.435 MMT of corn was shipped during the week that ended 6/2. That was up from last week’s 1.4 MMT shipment and from 1.427 MMT during the same week last year. Accumulated exports reached 43.733 MMT as of 6/2, compared to last year’s 52.61 MMT pace.?

French corn planting was reported as complete according to FranceAgriMer. Brazil was seen starting harvest for their 2nd crop, with Patria Agronegocios reporting 3.3% of the crop pulled in the fastest start to harvest.?

Jul 22 Corn??is at $7.41 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash?? is at $7.38 1/2, up 14 7/8 cents,

Sep 22 Corn??is at $7.13 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents,

Mar 23 Corn??is at $7.07 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash?? is at $6.84 1/2, up 12 3/8 cents,

Cattle Red at Midday

Front month live cattle futures are trading 20 to 52 cents weaker through midday as the grains markets rally back. Front month feeder cattle futures are down triple digits with midday losses of as much as $1.45. USDA confirmed last week’s cash trade was mainly near $135 in the South, with Northern sales of $139-$142 and $222 in the beef. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $154.29 after an 81 cent boost on 6/2. ?

Wholesale Boxed Beef were higher in USDA’s AM quote. Choice was $269.37, up by $2.11 and Select was $252.92 after a $2.90 boost. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 603k head for the week through Saturday. YTD slaughter was figured at 14.235m head, a 1% lead from last year’s pace.?

Jun 22 Cattle??are at $133.150, down $0.450,

Aug 22 Cattle??are at $133.525, down $0.325,

Oct 22 Cattle??are at $139.550, down $0.150,

Aug 22 Feeder Cattle??are at $172.450, down $1.425

Sep 22 Feeder Cattle??are at $174.825, down $1.475

Mixed Midday for Soy Market

Soybeans are back off their lows after fading from overnight gains at the day session’s open. Currently soybean futures are mixed, mostly lower, within 3 cents of UNCH. Soymeal prices faded to 70 cents in the red at midday, with BO prices mixed within 11 points of UNCH to 57 points lower in the July contract.?

Weekly Export Inspections data showed 350,416 MT of soybeans were shipped during the week that ended 6/2. That was down from 403k MT last week but was above the 239k MT from the same week last season. Mexico was the week’s top destination. USDA’s weekly data had the MY accumulated shipment total at 49.853 MMT, down 7 MMT yr/yr.?

Indonesia set their export quota as 300k MT for palm oil exports. Reports on the wire signal that is ~5x domestic supply, and that 251 permits had been issued.?

Jul 22 Soybeans??are at $16.94 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash?? is at $16.60 1/2, down 2 3/8 cents,

Aug 22 Soybeans??are at $16.31 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans??are at $15.32 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash?? is at $14.74 5/8, up 5/8 cent,

Monday Rally in Wheat

Wheat futures are recovering from the hard $1+ losses through last week. CBT SRW is back up by 53 to 55 cents at midday. KC futures are trading 50 3/4 to 52 cents higher. Spring wheat futures are up 39 to 41 cents for midday.?

USDA reported 352,779 MT of wheat was exported during the week that ended 6/2. Starting the new MY, with 225,845 MT through the first 2 days of data. Hard red spring and hard red winter were each over 100k MT of the total. Mexico was the week’s top destination.

The FranceAgriMer reported the wheat crop at 67% good/ex, down from last week’s 69% reading.?

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat??is at $10.97 1/2, up 57 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat??is at $10.37 3/8, up 57 1/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat??is at $11.74, up 53 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat??is at $11.26, up 52 3/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat??is at $12.32 3/4, up 41 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat??is at $12.33, up 39 1/2 cents,


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
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